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Growth with a ceiling BC only

Exponential growth has no ceiling, and nothing real behaves that way for long. The logistic model adds a factor that shuts the growth off as the quantity approaches a limit, and two of its facts carry marks without any solving at all.

§1

Two forms, one equation.

The logistic equation appears in two dresses, and reading the carrying capacity off each is the first skill.

  1. $\dfrac{dP}{dt} = kP\left(1 - \dfrac{P}{M}\right)$. Here $M$ is written into the equation directly.
  2. $\dfrac{dP}{dt} = kP(M - P)$. Here $M$ is again the number subtracted from $P$, but the constant out front is not the same $k$ as in the first form. The two are related by a factor of $M$.

The reliable move is to ignore the packaging and find the equilibria: set the right side to zero and solve. Both forms give $P = 0$ and $P = M$, so for $\frac{dP}{dt} = 0.002P(500 - P)$ the carrying capacity is $500$, not $0.002$ and not $1$.

That also settles what the leading constant means. In the second form its units involve one over a population and one over a time, so it is not a growth rate you can quote as a percentage. Reading $0.002$ as "point two percent per year" is a misreading of a different equation.

The two equilibria behave in opposite ways. $P = 0$ is repelling, so any positive starting population moves away from it. $P = M$ is attracting, so every positive solution approaches it. Nothing crosses either, which is Topic 7.4 applied here.

§2

The two facts that carry marks without solving.

One: the long-run value. For any $P(0) > 0$, $\displaystyle\lim_{t \to \infty} P(t) = M$. Starting below the ceiling the population rises to it; starting above, it falls to it. Either way the answer is $M$ and no solving is required to say so.

Two: where growth is fastest. The rate $kP\left(1 - \frac{P}{M}\right)$ is a downward parabola in $P$ with zeros at $0$ and $M$, so it peaks halfway between them, at

$$P = \frac{M}{2}.$$

This is the fact students invert. Growth is slowest near the carrying capacity, not fastest, because the second factor is nearly zero there. It is also slow near $P = 0$, because the first factor is. The maximum rate is $k \cdot \frac{M}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{kM}{4}$ in the first form.

Half capacity is also where the solution curve has its inflection point: the population is still increasing, but it stops increasing faster and starts increasing more slowly. Below $\frac{M}{2}$ the curve is concave up; above it, concave down. That is the whole S shape in one sentence.

A third fact worth stating because it is quietly examined: the population never reaches $M$ in finite time. It approaches it, and a claim that a colony hits its carrying capacity in the eleventh year describes a different model.

§3

Solving it, which needs partial fractions.

Separation puts $\frac{dP}{P(M - P)}$ on one side, and that integrand is exactly the Topic 6.12 form: one constant over each distinct linear factor. Decompose

$$\frac{1}{P(M - P)} = \frac{1}{M}\left(\frac{1}{P} + \frac{1}{M - P}\right),$$

integrate both pieces to logarithms, combine them, exponentiate, and solve for $P$. The result is

$$P = \frac{M}{1 + Ae^{-kt}}, \qquad A = \frac{M - P_{0}}{P_{0}}.$$

Three checks on that formula, all quick. At $t = 0$ it gives $\frac{M}{1 + A} = P_{0}$. As $t \to \infty$ the exponential vanishes and it gives $M$. And $A$ is positive when the population starts below the ceiling and negative when it starts above, which is what puts the curve on the right side of $M$.

The constant is $\frac{M - P_{0}}{P_{0}}$, not $\frac{M}{P_{0}}$. That off-by-one is the most common slip in assembling the solution, and substituting $t = 0$ catches it immediately.

§4

Reading the curve.

A logistic solution starting below the ceiling has a shape worth being able to describe in words:

  1. Early. $P$ is small, the second factor is close to $1$, and the equation behaves like $\frac{dP}{dt} = kP$. Growth is nearly exponential and accelerating.
  2. At $\frac{M}{2}$. The rate peaks. The curve inflects.
  3. Late. The second factor shrinks toward zero, the rate follows it, and the curve flattens against $P = M$ without touching it.

Starting above the ceiling the picture is simpler: the second factor is negative, the population falls, and it flattens onto $M$ from above. There is no inflection point on that side, since the rate is largest at the start and shrinks all the way.

On a slope field the two equilibria show as horizontal lines at $P = 0$ and $P = M$, with the steepest segments along $P = \frac{M}{2}$ and shallower ones as you move toward either line. Matching a field to a logistic equation means checking those three heights, not the general S impression.

§5

Skill Check.

Ten scenarios. Pick the chips that match your answer, then check. A scenario marks complete the first time every part is right. Progress saves on this device.

0 of 10 scenarios complete