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Mistake Master · AP Statistics · Unit 3 · Step-Through Animation

An Interval Assumes Nothing, Which Is Exactly Why It May Not Pool

You'll learnto build a two-proportion z-interval from each group's own estimate, why pooling belongs to the test and never to the interval — shown on a study where it changes the conclusion — how the confidence level trades width for certainty, and how to write an interpretation that names both populations and the direction of subtraction.

The interval for a difference has the shape every interval in this course has: the observed difference, plus or minus a margin of error. For a new checkout system converting 138 of 300 shoppers against the old one's 90 of 250, that is 0.10 ± 1.96(0.0418), or about 1.8 to 18.2 percentage points. What makes it its own topic is a thing it refuses to do. The two-proportion test merges the samples into one pooled estimate, because its null hypothesis says the two rates are equal and under that assumption there is one rate to estimate. An interval assumes nothing — estimating the difference is its entire job — so combining the groups would build in the claim that the difference is zero, the very thing being measured. On this study the two standard errors differ by under one percent and the error hides. So this animation goes looking for a study where it does not: at 110 of 300 against 72 of 250, the correct interval excludes zero and the pooled one contains it. Same data, same level, opposite conclusions.

8 STEPS · 6 QUICK CHECKS · UNPOOLED SE · z* AND WIDTH · FOUR COUNTS · v1

0.10 ± 1.96(0.0418) · two separate variances · never pooled
Before you start
What you're looking at
Intervals for a difference between two population proportions, drawn as horizontal bars in percentage points, with a dashed line at zero — the value that would mean the two rates are the same.
The question
How wide is the interval, what sets that width, and why must the two groups' estimates be kept separate when the test is allowed to merge them?
Watch for
Whether a bar crosses zero. Twice in this animation two bars built from the same data land on opposite sides of that line.
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