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Mistake Master · AP Statistics · Unit 3 · Step-Through Animation

One Number Is the Target. The Other One Moves

You'll learnhow a parameter differs from a statistic and why the notation carries the whole distinction, what unbiased actually promises and what it does not, why variability is the property sample size controls, and why a bigger sample makes a biased design more confident instead of more correct.

A parameter is one number describing a population: fixed, and in any real problem, never seen. A statistic is computed from a sample, known exactly the moment the data arrive, and different on the next sample. Every picture in this animation is the same object — the exact distribution of the sample proportion over all possible samples — asked five different questions. It shows an unbiased estimator landing 0.06 from the truth one week in ten, because unbiased is a promise about the center of that distribution and not about any single sample. And it shows the reverse trap: a volunteer poll centered at 0.70 when the truth is 0.50, where growing the sample from 500 to 8,000 raises the chance of landing within 0.01 of the wrong answer from 41% to 95% while the chance of landing near the truth stays below one in ten thousand. Sample size buys tightness. It has no opinion about where.

8 STEPS · 6 QUICK CHECKS · PARAMETER VS STATISTIC · UNBIASED ESTIMATORS · VARIABILITY · v1

four samples, four answers · unbiased misses by 0.06 one week in ten · 8,000 volunteers, still 0.20 off
Before you start
What you're looking at
A number line for the sample proportion p-hat, with the true population proportion p = 0.50 marked as a dashed rule. Everything that happens is a distribution of possible samples drawn over this line.
The question
If every sample gives a different answer and none of them is the truth, what exactly is a good estimator promising?
Watch for
Two separate properties. Where a curve is centered is bias; how wide it is, is variability. Sample size changes exactly one of them.
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