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Mistake Master · AP Statistics · Unit 3 · Step-Through Animation

The Test Says Something Differs. It Never Says What, or Which Way

You'll learnhow to carry out a chi-square test: adding one squared, scaled discrepancy per cell, reading the p-value from the upper tail with degrees of freedom from the table's shape, writing the conclusion in context — and the three conclusions a significant chi-square does not license, with the follow-up tools that supply what it cannot.

The statistic adds up how far each cell landed from what the null predicted, squared so overshoots and undershoots both count, and divided by the expected count so that a gap of 20 means more where 30 were expected than where 300 were. For the three-school table that total is 12.15 on 2 degrees of freedom, and the p-value is the area to its right — always the right, because only a large statistic disagrees with the null. At 0.0023 it clears any usual standard, and then the sentence has to be written carefully, because a chi-square result invites three conclusions it cannot support: which cell is responsible, what caused it, and — when the p-value is large — that the variables are independent. It cannot even say which direction the difference runs. This page proves that last one rather than asserting it: swap the two response columns so school A runs low instead of high, and the statistic comes out identical, to the last decimal.

8 STEPS · 6 QUICK CHECKS · THE STATISTIC AND ITS COMPONENTS · THE UPPER TAIL · WHAT IT CANNOT SAY · v1

χ² = 12.15 on df 2 · p = 0.0023, always the upper tail · the mirror table scores the same
Before you start
What you're looking at
Topic 3.14's table, now measured. Each bar is one cell's contribution to the chi-square statistic: how far that cell landed from the null's prediction, squared, scaled by what was expected there.
The question
Is the whole table further from the null's picture than sampling variability explains — and once the answer is yes, what may actually be said?
Watch for
What the statistic throws away. It squares every discrepancy, so it keeps the size of the departure and loses its direction — and step 7 builds the table that proves it.
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