Mistake Master
Six Heads That Are Never Repaid, and a Proportion That Comes Back Anyway
You'll learnwhy a long-run proportion settles down without any result ever making up for another, what that says about the very next toss, and how to build a simulation whose chances match the situation and report what it produces as the estimate it is.
A fair coin has just landed heads six times. Now suppose every toss after that splits exactly evenly — one head, one tail, forever — so the streak is never once repaid. The running proportion of heads still walks down to 0.5, and the three extra heads are still sitting there at every checkpoint, untouched. You watch that happen, and then you use it: nothing is owed on the seventh toss, and a short run cannot convict a coin any more than it can excuse one. The last three beats build a simulation instead of reading one — seven digits for a 70% shooter, not eight — and finish on the spread of the answer it gives back. Twelve short steps; press Next for each one.